359
FXUS65 KBOU 091852
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1252 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers this afternoon/evening. A few weak
  thunderstorms are also possible. Rainfall amountswill be light
  (less than 0.10").

- A brief cool down Friday with scattered rain showers. Isolated
  thunderstorms are also possible.

- Scattered showersSaturday with a few thunderstorms, mainly
  over the mountains andfar northeast plains.

- Warm and dry Sunday and Monday, with breezy/windy conditions
  possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/...
Issued at 1252 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Scattered showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon. Moisture continues to be limited, which
will keep rainfall amounts light. Gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph
will be possible around the showers and storms.

A weak cold front drops south across eastern Colorado this
evening. Lift from the front may produce additional scattered
showers this evening.Low level moisture begins to increase, but
not enough during the evening to enhance rainfall. Low level flow
turns southeasterly by Friday morning, ushering low level moisture
and low clouds over the eastern plains. A Denver cyclone forms
and likely pulls the cooler air and low clouds westward over the
northern parts of the urban corridor. A convergent zone develops
by afternoon and along this, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to form. As this activity progresses
eastward, it will encounter the cooler more stable airmass and
should dissipate. Across the mountains, the airmass becomes
unstable during the afternoon with scattered high-based showers
and isolated thunderstorms expected.

For Saturday through Monday, southwest flow aloft will prevail
during this time frame. An upper levellow will move across
California this weekend. It then weakens into a large trough with
at least two shortwave troughs passing through it. A shortwave
trough embedded in the southwest flow ahead of the main trough
will track across the Central Rockies on Saturday. Scattered
afternoon and early evening showers are expected to develop. A few
weak thunderstorms are also possible. Limited moisture will keep
rainfall amounts light. Flow aloft slowly increases as the trough
approaches the region, becoming strong on Monday. Breezy winds are
expected on Sunday and it may be windy on Monday if this
patterncontinues to hold. Temperatures will be above normal with
dry conditions, leading to possible elevated to critical fire
weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

Models have generally trended quicker and weaker as the upper
level trough moves across the Central Rockies. Cooler and
unsettled weather is still likely on Tuesday. Chances for heavier
precipitation have decreased, but it is still possible if a
shortwave trough intensifies into a closed low as it rotates
through the longwave trough. This is not uncommon, but the
location needs to be just right. A warming and drying trend is
expected for Wednesday and Thursday behind the exiting system.
There`s still considerable uncertainty during this period,
especially on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF package. Scattered
high based showers are expected to form to the west of the
terminals over the next hour or two, moving near the terminals
around 19Z. Scattered showers will continue around the area
through the early to mid evening. Most of the rain is expected to
evaporate before reaching the ground, leading to gusty and
erratic wind shifts around the showers. There is a low potential
for an isolated thunderstorm to develop this afternoon, but
confidence in development and coverage is too low to include in
the TAF. Winds overnight will be mostly light and variable.
Tomorrow afternoon we`re looking at another chance for scattered
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two depending on cloud cover
and instability. Models are showing a Denver Cyclone forming over
DIA in the afternoon, which will complicate the wind forecast.
Right now, we have winds mainly from the SE with variable gusts
from nearby showers. But the prevailing direction could change
depending on the exact set up of the cyclone tomorrow.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...AP

NWS BOU Office Area Forecast Discussion